QB passing props 2023Ĭlick the tab in the table below to view season-long NFL betting props. Hurts is getting +119 odds at Caesars to rush for a touchdown and +500 at BetMGM to rush for two scores. Hurts is virtually unstoppable when he sneaks in short-yardage situations and his read-option game is a staple of Philly’s offense. Philly posted a 62.9% rush-play rate in that win over the 49ers and should continue that approach considering their rush-play rate (50%) this season was the fourth-highest in the league. The Chiefs are a below-average run defense that allowed the fifth-most rushing YPG to QBs and struggled to contain Joe Burrow in their last game. Hurts admitted that his shoulder injury is still a factor, but he plowed for 39 rushing yards on 11 attempts against San Francisco’s second-rated run defense in the NFC Championship. Use TheLines Prop Finder tool to determine the best number for this prop, as some books are offering under 48.5 rushing yards for the Eagles’ dual-threat dynamo. Jalen Hurts (Over 48.5 rushing yards / Over 9.5 rush attempts) Philly is first in neutral situation pace and first in pace during the first half, so there should be plenty of possessions for Mahomes to rack up attempts. When KC struggled to run the ball down the stretch this season, Andy Reid wisely asked Mahomes to carry the offense, with his superstar QB posting six games with 40-plus pass attempts after Nov 6 this season. And the Chiefs have almost no hope of running the ball against that front after their RBs managed just 27 rushing yards against the Bengals. He went 26-for-49 when the Bucs’ defensive line dominated his production in Super Bowl LV and he could see similar volume if the Eagles continue to rush the passer with ferocity. Mahomes has completed at least 26 passes in six of his last seven playoff games. The Eagles have an advantage on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which may actually lead to more scoring from Mahomes, with Hurts handing off in the red zone. There are some interesting head-to-head markets available at DraftKings for Mahomes to throw the first passing touchdown (-140) and combine for more passing and rushing scores (-115) than Hurts. I’ve included a link to the boxscore, and the table is fully sortable and searchable.Here are some of the best Super Bowl props for Mahomes and Hurts: Patrick Mahomes (Over 25.5 completions / Over 38.5 pass attempts) The table below shows the top 150 games since 1960 using this criteria, including postseason games. As a result, Namath is credited with a whopping 470 Adjusted Net Yards above average. That year, in every other game, Baltimore allowed just 3.41 ANY/A to opposing passers. That day, Namath threw for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 28 pass attempts he threw one interception and took one 6-yard sack, giving him 19.63 ANY/A. The top game was the historic Joe Namath/ Johnny Unitas showdown in 1972. When Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a classic shootout last year, I looked at the best passing battles in NFL history.
The best? Regular readers should know which game that is by now. But if the Colts defense continues to allow just 5.52 ANY/A to all other passers year, that would give Roethlisberger the 7th best passing game since 1960. That number may not mean much in the abstract.
Over the course of 49 dropbacks, this means Roethlisberger produced a whopping 372 Adjusted Net Yards above average, with average being defined as what all other passers did against Indianapolis. Therefore, the Steelers star averaged 7.58 more ANY/A against the Colts than the average passer in 2014. Entering the day, the Colts were allowing just 5.52 ANY/A to opposing passers. That’s an outstanding number that needs no qualifier, but it’s even more impressive when you consider the opponent. Roethlisberger averaged 13.10 ANY/A, a sparkling number. Let’s start by calculating his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which gives a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes, a 45-yard penalty for interceptions, and deducts sack yardage from the numerator (and adds sacks to the denominator). It goes without saying that 500+ yard games are rare, and 6+ TD games are rare, and the combination of both are really rare.īut was it the best passing game ever? Not so fast. That’s a magnificent performance: in fact, among players with an 80% completion percentage in a game, he set a record for completions. He threw six touchdowns, and didn’t throw an interception or take a sack. He completed 40 of 49 passes for 522 yards. It was criminal how good Ben was on SundayĪgainst Indianapolis in week 8, Ben Roethlisberger was close to perfect.
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